Hospitality trading flatlines in October as restaurant and bar sales slip 

Britain’s managed restaurant, pub and bar groups recorded flat trading in October, with like-for-like sales edging up 0.1%, according to the latest Hospitality Business Tracker from CGA by NIQ and RSM.It was the third month of only marginal growth and follows a year in which like-for-like increases have topped 1% just once, signalling continued caution in consumer discretionary spending.

Like-for-like sales in managed pubs rose 1.9% compared with October 2024, supported by mild weather and strong Halloween trading. Restaurant sales fell 1.4% year-on-year, marking the sector’s seventh negative result in eight months, while managed bars saw sales drop 5.9% amid pressure on household budgets and a shift towards earlier drinking-out occasions.

Despite the flat picture on a like-for-like basis, site openings contributed to stronger total sales. When including venues launched in the last 12 months, managed groups’ sales were 3% ahead of last October, only slightly below the UK inflation rate. CGA said the figures point to stable underlying demand and continuing confidence among operators and investors to open new sites.

Additional data from the latest monitor shows Britain’s number of licensed venues increased by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025, providing further evidence of expansion across parts of the sector.

London again outperformed the rest of the country in October. Like-for-like sales within the M25 were 0.5% up year-on-year, while trading outside the capital was flat. The tracker attributed this to London’s relative affluence, tourism appeal and the continued return of office workers.

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “October’s dull weather was well matched to the subdued mood of hospitality. These latest figures show how hard it is for businesses to achieve real-terms growth at the moment, and with footfall well below the levels of last year they will be pinning hopes on strong festive trading to replenish reserves. 

“The sector is now looking to the forthcoming Budget for support to stimulate consumer spending and ease its very heavy burden of costs. This support can help build a strong sector that drives long-term economic growth and job creation.”

Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, added: “The hospitality industry continues to limp towards the budget with another set of disappointing results, with only pubs showing signs of like-for-like growth while the wider sector struggles with low consumer confidence and subdued demand. 

“Attention now turns to the Autumn Budget, as operators look to the Treasury for meaningful support to offset last year’s damaging employment tax rises. Regardless of what’s announced, simply moving past the budget should provide a measure of clarity that has been lacking in recent months, enabling businesses and consumers to plan for the year ahead. With Christmas trade vital to the industry, the timing could not be more critical.”