Hospitality sales growth remains flat at 0.2% in September  

Britain’s managed restaurant, pub and bar groups remained flat in September with a like-for-like sales growth of 0.2%, though “cautious optimism” has been reported ahead of the festive quarter, according to the latest CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker.

It marks a second consecutive month of fractional growth, following a 0.5% increase in August, and is only the fourth positive month since the start of 2025. The figures suggest consumers remained cautious with discretionary spending ahead of the Christmas and New Year period.

Despite this, CGA said there were “grounds for cautious optimism” ahead of the festive season, as total sales, which include trading from venues opened within the past year, rose by 3.4%. 

Although still marginally below the UK’s current rate of inflation, the increase points to continued long-term confidence in the hospitality market among operators and investors.

The findings align with the most recent Business Confidence Survey from CGA by NIQ and Sona, which showed the proportion of sector leaders optimistic about their business prospects over the next 12 months increased from 34% to 41% between the first and second quarters of 2025. CGA’s separate Hospitality Market Monitor also reported stability in the number of licensed premises across Britain after several years of post-pandemic contraction.

Within the sector, managed pubs continued to outperform other formats. Pub sales in September were up 1.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% fall among restaurants. Analysts attributed the trend partly to consumers choosing drinks-led occasions over meals, as well as dry weather and the start of university terms boosting pub and bar visits.

Sales in the bar segment fell by 6.8% compared with September 2024, while on-the-go outlets were 3.7% lower.

For only the third month this year, London outperformed the rest of the country, with like-for-like sales within the M25 up 0.7% against 0.1% outside it. The modest uplift is thought to reflect a gradual return of office workers to the capital, supporting lunchtime and after-work trade.

Trading since the end of September has been disrupted in parts of the country by Storm Amy. Sector leaders have also expressed concern ahead of the Chancellor’s Budget on 26 November, with industry groups calling for action on tax, labour and cost pressures that have continued to weigh on margins throughout 2025.

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “September’s sales were nothing to write home about, but they do at least represent stability after a turbulent year for hospitality. Conditions are currently significantly better for pub groups, which can look ahead to Christmas and New Year trading with some confidence, but restaurant and bar trends give more cause for concern. 

“Whatever their sector, business leaders and investors will be able to look forward with much more confidence if they get the targeted and sustained support they deserve in the November Budget.”

Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK added: “September’s results tell a very similar story to August, with reasonable headline revenue growth for the sector but flat like-for-likes. 

“Recent trends in the hospitality industry are becoming increasingly baked in, with pubs benefiting from consumers trading down amid weak confidence, while independent and casual dining brands suffer as a consequence. With a long wait for clarity in November’s budget, both consumers and operators are in a holding pattern, which could threaten to jeopardise the all-important Christmas trading period.”