Consumer spending set to fall by 14.9%

Total UK consumer spending is expected to fall by 14.9% to £183.6bn this year in light of Covid-19-induced lockdowns, according to new research from Mintel.

The spending drop is equivalent to £6,600 per household, with the biggest decreases occurring in transport (£55.1bn), foodservices (£44.3bn) and holiday industries (£40.7bn).

Consumer spending in these categories will reportedly fall by £140bn in total, or just over £5,000 per household, which represents around 77% of the overall decline in consumer spending this year.

However, Mintel has suggested that by 2021 spending on transport will increase by £32.3bn, while food services will rise by £17.7bn and holidays by £19.2bn, compared with 2020.

The three sectors that will experience the biggest increase in consumer spending this year will reportedly be food, alcoholic, and non-alcoholic drinks purchased at retail channels, with a predicted rise of £11.2bn.

Jack Duckett, associate director of consumer lifestyles research at Mintel, said: “The Covid-19 lockdowns have had a profound impact on consumer spending, decimating the transport industry, and broader travel and leisure sectors.

“We estimate that retail value sales of alcoholic drinks will grow 16% year-on-year – the fastest growth rate experienced for at least a decade – to reach £25.5bn in 2020, as people trade nights out for evenings in.”

He added: “The wider threat to consumers’ finances, however, means that grocery shoppers will once again be heavily focused on value. That said, there are opportunities to cater to a ‘trading up while trading down’ mentality as consumers continue to turn away from foodservice.”